A $400 AI Bet That’s a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work

In 2020 two economists walked into a bar in San Diego and made a bet. Erik Brynjolfsson, head of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, wagered that from 2020 to 2030, artificial intelligence would drive US labor productivity growth to more than 1.8% per year on average. Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, thought AI progress would be a little slower going. He put his money on productivity growth coming in below 1.8%. At stake: $400, to be donated to charity.

As wonky and low stakes as the bet might sound, its outcome will have a much greater ...