Smurfit’s Odds of Closing on WestRock Are Just 65%, Shares Show

Smurfit Kappa Group Plc only has about a two-thirds chance of actually closing on its planned purchase of US competitor WestRock Co., based on the relative share prices of the companies.

Shares of WestRock, a packaging maker, are trading around 10% below the value of Smurfit’s cash-and-stock offer announced on Tuesday. That puts the deal’s market implied probability at about 65%, according to Brian Lombardi, merger arbitrage strategist at FBN Securities.

The biggest hurdle the transaction has to clear, Lombardi said, is the approval of Smurfit’s shareholders. Investors holding 75% of the company’s shares by value have to ...