Week in Insights: Amazon’s Lower Taxes to Test Policy Trade-off

Feb. 15, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC

Amazon.com Inc.’s widely reported US tax bill last year, down to $2.8 billion from $7.6 billion in 2024, is a data point. Congress rewrote the tax code to allow for immediate expensing of capital investment and research costs, betting that companies would accelerate their investments in response.

Amazon did exactly that, pouring $128 billion into capital spending tied heavily to artificial intelligence and related infrastructure. The underlying idea is that letting companies deduct large investments immediately and reduce the upfront cost of mobilizing capital will pull tomorrow’s investments into today. The payoff would be faster innovation, more domestic infrastructure, and a stronger productive capacity—all of which would offset temporarily lower tax receipts.

Full expensing created a testable hypothesis. If it’s correct, we should see a surge in domestic capital formation and real benefits to society. The Amazon example gives us a clear test case.
Framing policy this way enables accountability. With the investment visible, we can double back and ask first-principle questions. Did the spending expand productive capacity over a longer timeframe or accelerate investments that were going to happen anyway? Were the gains broad-based or concentrated among firms that were already positioned to deploy their capital at scale?

Most importantly, are we comfortable with the fiscal cost and distribution of benefits we received in the trade-off?

The mistake would be to treat Amazon’s outcome as a scandal or surprise. Congress figured that pulling investment forward and accepting lower near-term revenue would yield an economic payoff worth the cost.

If this surge in investment strengthens domestic capacity, builds technological leadership, and delivers durable growth to society, the policy deserves to be defended. If it doesn’t, then the failure lies with elected lawmakers who mispriced the trade-off, not the companies that took the deal.

—Andrew Leahey

An Amazon warehouse in Rialto, Calif.
An Amazon warehouse in Rialto, Calif.
Photographer: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Welcome to the Week in Insights for Bloomberg Tax’s latest analysis and news commentary. This week, experts analyzed President Donald Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS, the PCAOB’s governance structure, and more.

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Technically Speaking design by Jonathan Hurtarte/Bloomberg Tax

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To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Xu at dxu@bloombergindustry.com; Melanie Cohen at mcohen@bloombergindustry.com

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