California Voters Will Get Fewer Choices: Ballots & Boundaries

California is nearing a deadline for removing initiatives from the November ballot, and already two of the biggies have been dropped — one because of negotiations and one by court order.

There won’t be a statewide vote on whether to keep a law that has helped workers sue companies such as Walmart Inc. and Google for workplace violations. Gov. Gavin Newsom worked out a deal between the California Chamber of Commerce and the California Labor Federation, and lawmakers appear ready to agree to the pact in time to make the June 27 deadline for withdrawing ballot questions.

The California Supreme Court removed from the ballot a measure that would have required voters to approve any tax increase passed by the state Legislature. It also would have required all local tax increases to be approved by two-thirds of voters instead of a simple majority vote. READ MORE from Laura Mahoney.

That’s not to say California will have a short ballot. Among the measures on track to make it to voters:

Crime—Major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, are backing a measure to toughen the penalties for certain shoplifting and drug offenses. The measure would roll back criminal justice reforms voters approved a decade ago. Aiming for a compromise, Democrats in the legislature have advanced a flurry of measures they say make it easier for law enforcement to crack down on thieves and drug trafficking. The changes don’t seem to have satisfied the measure’s proponents, however, and the absence of a deal could turn the November election partly into a referendum on crime in California.

Oil and gas—Fossil fuel companies are asking voters to repeal a 2022 law prohibiting new or modified oil and gas wells near schools, housing and certain other facilities. The law also requires wells near those sites to meet certain health, safety and environmental requirements. The campaign has brought together high-profile opponents, including Jane Fonda and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). Environmental groups are taking to the airwaves early, too, with an ad launching this week featuring Fonda.

Minimum wage—The ballot is also likely to feature a question on raising the statewide minimum wage to $18 an hour, from the current rate of $16 an hour. Backed by the progressive entrepreneur Joe Sanberg, the measure has yet to generate much excitement after labor unions won a $20 hourly minimum wage for fast food workers and $25 an hour for health care workers during recent legislative sessions. Moreover, many cities across the state already have higher wages. The minimum wage in San Francisco will increase to $18.67 on July 1, for example.

Same-sex marriage—California voters will decide whether to repeal a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. The ban, known as Proposition 8, was approved at the ballot box in 2008 and ruled unconstitutional in 2010. But Democrats in the legislature have raised concerns that a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court may seek to undo marriage equality.

Getting on the ballot requires a different number of signatures each cycle, depending on the number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Turnout was lower in 2022 after spiking in 2018, so the bar to qualify measures came down. “You have pent-up demand,” said David McCuan, a professor of political science at Sonoma State University. — Andrew Oxford

ABORTION: Petitions Ready in Montana
The group Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights says it’s ready to submit signatures to try to qualify a ballot question that would amend the state constitution to guarantee a right to abortion.

If the state confirms at least 60,359 valid signatures, Montana will join Colorado, Florida, Maryland, South Dakota and maybe New York with abortion ballot questions in November.

New York’s proposal is being litigated, with abortion-rights backers winning in court and the opposition talking about an appeal.

In Arkansas, Republican members of the state house joined together this week to introduce a resolution urging constituents to vote against a pending abortion rights measure. The proposed amendment would provide a right to abortion in the state within 18 weeks of gestation. The group behind the measure, Arkansans for Limited Government, has until July 5 to submit more than 90,000 signatures in support. — Celine Castronuovo

VIRGINIA: Count Concludes
Virginia is tallying the final mail-in ballots in the 5th Congressional District, where state Sen. John McGuire has an unofficial 327-vote edge over Rep. Bob Good in the Republican primary. The state board of elections is scheduled to certify results on July 2; if the margin’s less than one percentage point, the the trailing candidate would have 10 days to ask for a recount. READ MORE from the Virginia Mercury.

COLORADO, NEW YORK, UTAH: Next Primaries
In Rep. Lauren Boebert’s new home base, Republicans will decide on Tuesday between her and five others. If there’s anti-Boebert sentiment, having all those choices on the ballot will play to her favor, as Greg Giroux explains. READ MORE.

We’ll also be watching whether Sen. Mike Lee gets his way in Utah. Lee (R) wants to end the short congressional career of Rep. Celeste Maloy (R) and is backing her primary rival.

And of course the day’s marquee race is in suburban New York city, where Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) is seeking renomination in what has become the most expensive House primary ever. Ad Impact has charted $24 million worth of advertising in that 16th District race. READ MORE from Zach Williams.

Caught Our Eye

ELECTION LAW: Data tool being used to challenge voter registrations raises concerns (NPR)
SENATE ’24: Larry Hogan says he has ‘no interest’ in Trump’s endorsement (CNN)

Resources

• Our past coverage: BGOV Archive and BLAW Archive
• Meet the shoo-ins headed to the 119th Congress
• BGOV OnPoint: US House Election Landscape
• BGOV OnPoint: US Senate Election Landscape
• BGOV OnPoint: Gubernatorial Election Landscape
• Tracking Departures in the US House and Senate
• Litigation Trackers: ABC News, Loyola Law School, and Brennan Center
• Votebeat nonpartisan local election reporting

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