New Tariff Trades Show Wall Street Doubt Over Refund Payouts (1)

Nov. 14, 2025, 4:45 PM UTC

Even if the US Supreme Court strikes down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, there still appear to be significant doubts that trades betting on government refunds will ever pay out.

Several Wall Street heavyweights have struck deals with companies that could be eligible for reimbursement if the levies are found to be unlawful — an outcome that betting markets see as more likely after ahearing last week.

Yet investors are still finding the trade can be had for relatively cheap. Depending on the kind of tariff, the claims were quoted around 10 to 25 cents on the dollar this ...

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