Germany Sees Danger of 2026 Growth Rate Halving on Iran Crisis

German officials see a risk that the nation’s economy will grow at just half the pace they had envisaged if the Iran war drags on, according to people familiar with the matter.

Internal estimates anticipate expansion of just 0.5%, down from the most recent projection of 1%, in a worst-case scenario of the Middle East crisis dragging on, the people said, declining to be identified because the numbers aren’t public.

Under less severe assumptions of elevated oil and gas prices persisting at current levels in the coming weeks, officials see growth of 0.6% to 0.7%.