Lawmakers Play Shutdown Blame Game but Voter Memories Are Short

Oct. 2, 2025, 9:30 AM UTC

Hours into the first government shutdown in eight years, both parties angled to use the moment for political leverage, targeting potentially vulnerable rivals up for reelection next fall.

But while shutdowns generate temporary heat, they’re typically forgotten by the next Election Day — especially when they happen long before voters head to the polls, political veterans say.

Winning such a stalemate is like recovering a fumble on your own 1-yard line, said former Rep. Steve Stivers, an Ohio Republican. Getting the ball back is nice, but “there’s so much time left — and what happens for those other 99 yards matters.”

The clearest example comes from the 2013 shutdown, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) led Republicans into a standoff. Many analysts said it damaged the party by playing into the image of a GOP driven by destructive upstarts and threatened Republicans in swing districts.

Ted Cruz led a 2013 GOP shutdown that was initially seen as hurting the party, but Republicans gained seats the next year.
Ted Cruz led a 2013 GOP shutdown that was initially seen as hurting the party, but Republicans gained seats the next year.
Photographer: Anna Rose Layden/Bloomberg

Within weeks, however, Democrats lost their momentum, thanks to the disastrous rollout of the enrollment website for the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s signature legislation.

By the next fall, the shutdown was barely a blip on the campaign radar, and Republicans gained nine seats in the Senate and 13 in the House, sweeping to new heights of power.

“People cared a lot more about their health care than they did a relatively temporary shut down,” Stivers said.

Similarly, in January 2018 Democrats briefly shuttered the government while demanding protections for “dreamers,” undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children. They quickly caved — and still roared to electoral success that November, gaining 40 House seats.

Shutdowns “tend to get forgotten because they don’t happen typically near midterms,” said David Wasserman, senior election analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

This one, largely over federal spending and health care, likely will be over in a matter of weeks or less. And with President Donald Trump in the White House, each week brings new controversies and conflicts that quickly bury old ones.

“If the shutdown is not affecting average voters’ lives next October, then it’s unlikely to be an issue,” Wasserman said.

Partisan Messaging

Still, both parties are vowing that their opponents will pay a price for their role in bringing the government to a halt.

Democrats emphasize health care and their push to extend expiring subsidies that help millions of people purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act. Without them, some people could see their health care costs more than double, according to estimates from the nonpartisan health policy organization KFF.

“The GOP’s assault on health care is devastating for families across the country, and in 2026, voters will hold them accountable for it,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), the head of the Democratic Senate campaign arm.

Gillibrand said health care will remain a driving issue for voters next fall.
Gillibrand said health care will remain a driving issue for voters next fall.
Photographer: Sarahbeth Maney-Pool/Getty Images

Democrats also put health care at the center of their successful 2018 campaign, and have made clear they see it as a winning issue again. The shutdown gives them a high-profile way to raise the topic in a way that conventional debates don’t.

Even if voters don’t remember the shutdown next November, “they will remember that one party fought for lower health-care costs, and the other party raised them,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic strategist.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) explicitly tied the current battle to next year’s races, telling a Bloomberg Government roundtable last week that the fight for the credits requires “unrelenting pushback” until “the American people can weigh in during the midterm elections so that the country can change course.”

Republicans, meanwhile, accuse Democrats of cutting off pay for troops and threatening veterans’ services. Some also are raising debunked claims that Democrats support a spending plan that would provide health coverage to undocumented immigrants.

“This is gonna blow up in their face. It’s gonna be a flop,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). People “may agree with your policy goal. They don’t like shutting down the government.”

Cruz said Democrats are in a losing battle for a small constituency.

“What they’re really fighting for is their left wing base,” he said.

Both parties have launched ads or web sites targeting vulnerable incumbents over the shutdown. But most of the attacks are still relatively low-profile, with little spending behind them.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), who’s heading into one of the most competitive races in the country, shrugged off the potential electoral risks of a shutdown.

“I’m trying to do right by my constituents to keep the government open and protect health care,” he said.

State Races to Watch

The fight might have more immediate ramifications in Virginia and New Jersey, which hold gubernatorial races next month. Virginia is home to numerous federal workers facing potential furloughs or firings, while New Jersey could be affected by the Trump administration cutting $18 billion in infrastructure funds, including some meant to support new commuter trains between the Garden State and New York.

Schwerin, who helped Democrat Terry McAuliffe win Virginia’s gubernatorial race weeks after the 2013 shutdown, said the state is uniquely sensitive to government job losses, especially after the Trump administration already slashed the workforce.

“This is their local news,” he said. “Their neighbors are the ones that are losing their jobs.”

But the effects and messages still were emerging Wednesday, amid questions about how long the shutdown will last and how hard it will really hit.

Stivers, who in 2018 ran the GOP campaign arm and now leads the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, said shutdowns can “plant a seed” with voters that shapes their views of the parties.

But, he added, “It’s not like people are going to say a year later, ‘I voted these guys out because they shut down the government.’”

Greg Giroux in Washington also contributed to this story.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Tamari in Washington, D.C. at jtamari@bloombergindustry.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: John P. Martin at jmartin1@bloombergindustry.com; George Cahlink at gcahlink@bloombergindustry.com

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