Bond Bears Seek an Inflation Hedge If Trump or Harris Win Sweep

As America fixates on a deadlocked presidential race, Treasury investors are keeping one eye on the battle for Congress — where costly campaign pledges will either get reined in or have a smoother glide path.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both vowing to juice the economy with some combination of tax cuts and new spending, even though the budget is already deep in deficit and growth is running at a healthy clip. The $28 trillion Treasury market has remained largely unfazed, perhaps because polls point to a split Congress that would likely stymie many of the next president’s plans. ...