Trump’s Redistricting Gambit Ends Up Giving an Edge to Democrats

Democrats’ response to a Republican gambit to safeguard the party’s precarious House majority by redrawing congressional districts has, so far, been more successful than the GOP plans that have run into legal roadblocks.

Spurred on by President Donald Trump, Republicans have tried to redraw congressional lines with a rare, mid-decade redistricting spree to create more GOP-friendly seats. But recent court rulings threaten some of those plans, and Democrats have responded with their own partisan map changes that could block any Republican advantage.

The latest GOP setback was a federal court’s ruling this week against a more Republican-friendly congressional map in Texas, the linchpin of the party’s redistricting blueprint.

The ruling “has massive implications for the fight for the House, and, if it stands, would be a serious blow to President Donald Trump’s efforts to hold the majority by pushing redistricting in Republican states across the nation,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the nonpartisan publication Inside Elections.

Even if the US Supreme Court soon restores the map on appeal, Republicans could wind up with minimal gains in a redistricting arms race in which they sought a bigger cushion at the midpoint of Trump’s second term. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats for a majority, and the White House’s party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections since the end of World War II.

Bigger Than Texas

Regardless of what happens in Texas, the ramifications won’t stay in Texas.

Texas Republicans ignited a rush to revamp congressional maps by Democratic and Republican lawmakers in other states, including California. On Nov. 4, California voters overwhelmingly adopted new Democratic-drawn lines to neutralize the Texas Republican proposal. Trump’s Justice Department is challenging the California map, which could deliver up to five additional seats to Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Democratic lawmakers initially conditioned their proposal on Texas enacting new congressional maps. However, they removed that language during the legislative process, and the new California map, if upheld in court, will stand regardless of the outcome of the Texas litigation.

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), a top Newsom critic targeted for defeat under the governor’s map, said Tuesday on X there’s an incentive to “call a truce” and have Congress ban mid-decade redistricting now that it’s “unclear if the whole redistricting war will be a wash or will result in a modest gain for one party or the other.”

Democrats this month secured other redistricting wins.

In Utah, a state district judge rejected a map favoring Republicans in all four districts and instead implemented a remedial map with a strongly Democratic Salt Lake City district.

In Virginia, Democrats on Nov. 4 won control of the state government and can continue advancing a constitutional amendment that would authorize the legislature to redraw the state’s congressional map. Democrats hold six of 11 districts.

“They started this redistricting fight. We’re going to end it,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters Wednesday. Jeffries said he told House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) months ago, when Texas Republicans first proposed redrawing their maps, that “this is not going to end well for you.”

In GOP-leaning Ohio, Democratic lawmakers on the state’s redistricting commission may have avoided a worst-case scenario after cutting a deal with Republicans in the majority. The accord slightly boosted vulnerable Rep. Emilia Sykes (D), leading her 2024 Republican opponent to withdraw from a rematch. The map weakens Rep. Greg Landsman (D), though he could win a swing district in the Cincinnati area. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur‘s district became more Republican-leaning.

And Democrats are backing lawsuits against GOP maps in Missouri and North Carolina. In Missouri, there’s also a campaign underway to collect enough signatures to block the map and force a statewide voter referendum. In North Carolina, a federal court heard a request Wednesday for a preliminary injunction to block a map designed to unseat Rep. Don Davis (D).

Republicans are struggling to secure the votes to enact maps in Indiana and Kansas.

In Indiana, Trump has threatened political reprisals against state Senate Republicans who oppose new lines favoring Republicans in all nine districts. In Kansas, Republican legislators aren’t assured of a two-thirds majority that would be needed to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto of any map imperiling Rep. Sharice Davids (D).

Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) said his Republican-leaning state’s legislature doesn’t have the votes to revise congressional districts, namely the swing Omaha-area district of retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R) that’s in danger of flipping to Democrats.

“I find it interesting every time super-partisan people on either side decide to game the system, it never seems to really work in the long term,” Flood, a former speaker of Nebraska’s unicameral and nonpartisan legislature, said Wednesday at an exclusive Bloomberg Government roundtable.

GOP redistricting setbacks may ramp up pressure on Florida Republicans to enact a more aggressive gerrymander than the current map favoring them in 20 of 28 districts. The state House’s congressional redistricting committee will hold its first meeting next month.

Democrats’ Options

But Democrats could do more too.

Illinois Democrats, including Gov. JB Pritzker, have threatened a new map targeting Rep. Darin LaHood (R) if Republicans in neighboring Indiana approve new lines. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) set up an advisory commission to consider redistricting, though state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) has said it isn’t worth the risk to try to oust the state’s only Republican in Congress, Rep. Andy Harris.

A wild card in the redistricting wars is how — and when — the Supreme Court rules in a Louisiana congressional redistricting case that centers on the question of whether race-based congressional redistricting under the Voting Rights Act is unconstitutional. Should the court issue a ruling soon that narrows the VRA, some Republican legislatures in southern states may seek to eliminate Black-majority districts favoring Democrats.